It’s that time of year again. With roughly 2 months left in the season pitchers are starting to seperate themselves as CY Young candidates and the rest. In my opinion the top 5 candidates are C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Dan Haren, Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez.
5) Number five is where Felix Hernandez sits at this point in time. He’s currently producing a 3.7 WAR and could see that end up at about a 5 WAR or so by season’s end. His statistics are pretty much at league norm. He has a solid 3.16 FIP which is slightly higher then his 3.04 FIP last year but nonetheless it’s still solid. His FIP- is 81 so his FIP is 19% better then league average. He’s striking out 8.51 batters per 9 innings and only walking 2.89 per 9. He has a BABIP of .296 so he’s pretty much pitching at his true talent level. Overall he’s having one heck of a year but not quite CY level worthy.
4) Sliding in at number 4 is the Angel’s Dan Haren. Haren is quitely putting together a very solid season in LA. He currently has a 4.8 WAR to go along with a 2.68 FIP. His FIP- is an incredible 68, this means his fip is 32% better then league average! He’s striking out 7.29 batters per 9 innings and only walking 1.34 batters every 9 innings. His BABIP is a little low at .267 so he could see a slight increase in his numbers. He has a .290 career BABIP so like I said the increase shouldn’t be major. Haren is putting up CY numbers but the problem is so are 3 others.
3) Dan Haren’s teammate, Jerded Weaver comes in at number 3. Weaver is sporting a 5.1 WAR to go along with an impressive 2.62 FIP. His xFIP of 3.58 shows that he could see a sligh increase in his 1.88 ERA but that remains to be seen. One look at his .245 BABIP and you might be wary but his career BABIP is .277 and FB pitchers tend to have lower BABIPs. He has a 7.62 K/9 to go along with a 2.04 BB/9 which is right around is career norms. Normally with a 5.1 WAR he’d be leading the race for the CY but not this year.
2) At number 2 I have C.C. Sabathia. Last year many thought C.C. should have won the award but he only produced a 5.1 WAR compared to Felix’s 6+ WAR, still, a solid season nonetheless. Anyway, this could be the year that Sabathia grabs the award. He has a 5.8 WAR to go along with a 2.52 FIP. Both are excellent numbers. His BABIP is .293 so no regression is expected in the near future. He’s striking out 8.25 batters every 9 innings and walking a solid 2.29. His FIP- is 62 making his FIP 38% better then league average. He’s as good as it gets but there’s been one pitcher in the AL who’s been slightly better.
1) This year the award belongs to Justin Verlander. He’s pitched one no-hitter this year and the other day he almost got his second. This guy is crazy good and unfortunetly being a Twins fan I get to see him more often then I’d like. He has a 5.5 WAR, .3 less then C.C. but he’s been simply unreal. One pitch he can throw a 92 MPH fastball, then he’ll give you a 100 MPH fastball. He’s unreal. His FIP is at 2.68 and his FIP- is 67, 33% better then league average. His BABIP is .232 but it’s been low all season, I don’t expect much of a change. He’s punching 8.85 batters per 9 and walking an incredinle 1.79. This year the award belongs to Verlander. Like I said he’s been so nasty this year and has the stats to back it up.
How I think it should happen:
1) Justin Verlander
2) C.C. Sabathia
3) Jered Weaver
4) Dan Haren
5) Felix Hernandez
How I think it’ll happen:
1) Justin Verlander
2) C.C. Sabathia
3) Felix Hernandez
4) Jered Weaver
5) Dan Haren
Tomorrow I will get the NL CY Young race up. Thanks for reading!