The 2011 NL CY Young Race

In the National League there are four guys who will contend for the CY Young. Three of them play for the same team. They are Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw.

4) Cliff Lee got robbed from the CY last year and this year he’s on a mission to get what’s his. He currently has a 4.1 WAR, not quite as good as the last 3 seasons but solid. He has an above average FIP of 2.80, the second best of his career. His .305 BABIP indicates that he’s pitching right at his talent level so he shouldn’t expect any regression. Like the others he’s doesnt give up the long ball, only .81 HR per 9 innings. He’s striking out an impressive 9.23 batters per 9 and walking only 1.86. He’s having a solid season by any standard but not solid enough for the CY unless he makes a late push

3) Kershaw is finally becoming what we all hoped he would be. He has a 4.7 WAR, .1 less then all of last year and is finally cutting down all of the walks, which was a main problem last year. He has a 2.51 FIP, .57 better then his FIP in 2009 which was 3.08. His BABIP is .278, about .12 under the league average but he’s always had a low BABIP for his career. He’s doing a very good job at keeping the ball in the park, only giving up .61 HR/9 but in his short career he’s shownhe can prevent the long ball. His 9.87 strikeouts per 9 are not only impressive but also a career best. Like I mentioned earlier though are the walks. He’s walking 2.34 batters this year, 1.23 less batters per 9 then last year. He’s making a strong push for the CY but it might not be strong enough.

2) Cole Hamels is having a career year, posting a 4.7 WAR which is already the best for his career and the season isn’t even done yet. He’s posting a 2.57 FIP which is the lowest that it’s ever been. His BABIP is a little low at .262 but for his career he has a .282 BABIP so not much regression should occur. One main reason why he’s having such success is because he’s doing such a good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark. He’s only giving up .51 HR per 9 innings pitched. He’s striking out 8.26 batters per 9 innings and only walking 1.77 which is a career best. Hamels is having a career year and is worthy of a CY Young but the problem is so is one other and that other guy is pretty good.

1) Roy Halladay. This guy is supposed to be on the downside of his career not attempting to post one of his best seasons ever. He has a 5.9 WAR and an incredible 2.20 FIP! He’s 34 and has a 2.2 FIP. Unreal. His BABIP is even .300, you won’t be seeing any regression at this rate. He’s striking out 8.45 every 9 innings and walking only 1.06. Did I mention he doesn’t give up home runs? Only .48 home runs every 9 innings! This guy is simply a horse and there’s no way he doesn’t win the CY at this rate.

How I think it should happen:

1) Doc Halladay

2) Cole Hamels

3) Clayton Kershaw

4) Cliff Lee

How I think it will happen:

1) Doc Halladay

2) Cliff Lee

3) Clayton Kershaw

4) Cole Hamels

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